April 29 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | April 29 2025

Housing Market Update

Latest Market Data (April 29, 2025)
New home sales surged 7.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units, marking the highest level since September 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. This rebound aligns with a modest dip in March’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.65%, down from February’s 6.84%. Meanwhile, existing-home sales declined 5.9% month-over-month in March, with the median price reaching a record $403,700, up 2.7% year-over-year. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported a 3.9% annual gain in February, while the FHFA House Price Index rose 0.1% monthly and 3.9% year-over-year, reflecting sustained price growth despite affordability challenges.

Construction Activity
Single-family housing inventory increased 7.9% year-over-year to 503,000 units in March, with completed homes ready for occupancy jumping 34% to 119,000 units. Regional disparities persist, as year-to-date new home sales rose 12.9% in the South but fell 32% in the Northeast and 18.3% in the Midwest.

Mortgage Rates

Type	Today's Rate	Last Week's Rate
30-year fixed	6.88%	6.93%
15-year fixed	6.09%	6.16%
5/1 ARM	6.10%	6.16%

Future Forecasts
Fannie Mae projects rates will dip to 6.30% by year-end, though near-term volatility is likely ahead of Friday’s jobs report and the Fed’s May 7 meeting.

Notable Transactions

Commercial Highlights
A trio of Naples, Florida, beachfront properties sold for a combined $225 million, setting a statewide record. The portfolio includes 15 acres with 812 feet of Gulf frontage, anchored by an 8,846-square-foot estate at 2200 Gordon Drive.

Market Indicators

Industrial Vacancy Trends
The U.S. industrial vacancy rate climbed to 7.1% in Q1 2025-the highest since 2015-as new supply outpaces demand.

Regional Developments

Small-Market Momentum
Secondary markets outpaced major metros in Q1, with transactions under $50 million rising 2.6% while high-dollar deals declined 0.5%. The South led new home sales growth, while the Northeast and West lagged.

Northeast
Boston’s 99 High Street office tower sold for $227 million, a 32% discount to its 2019 valuation, highlighting ongoing distress in urban office markets.

West
Demolition began on a former JCPenney in Orange, California, to make way for 167 townhomes, reflecting adaptive reuse trends amid retail consolidation.

Sources:

Sources

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.